On December 6th, 2022, Democrat Raphael Warnock beat out his Republican challenger Herschel Walker to win the Georgia runoff election for the US Senate. Warnock’s victory marked the end of the 2022 midterm elections, a series of prediction-defying contests that saw the Republicans take the House but the Democrats expand their control in the Senate.

Going into the elections on Nov. 8th, Republicans needed to flip five House seats and one Senate seat to wrest control of Congress. Given these thin margins and polling that favored the GOP’s chances, most analysts predicted that the Democrats would lose the House, many local elections, and likely the Senate. History was also in the GOP’s favor: the president’s party has lost seats in every midterm except three since the Civil War in 1865.

But by most counts, this red wave didn’t materialize. The Republicans won 220 House seats, surpassing the 218 necessary for a majority but by a historically slim margin. Since 1934, the president’s party has loston average 28 seats in the House; the Republicans only picked up 10.

The GOP also failed to regain the Senate. The Democrats expanded their control in Congress from a 50-50 split—with Vice President Kamala Harris splitting the vote—to a 51-49 majority. This, too, was a historically disappointing result for the Republicans. The opposition usually gains four seats, but the GOP only gained one.

So, what are the implications of these results?

First and foremost, these elections eroded former president Donal Trump’s grip on the GOP. In key races at the local and state levels, Trump-endorsed candidates lost: Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia, to name a few.

How this bodes for the GOP and Trump moving forward, however, is unclear. It is possible that these results will serve as a referendum on Trump and his election denying. Many of his failed candidates denied the results of the 2020 election. By turning down these candidates, the American electorate may have eschewed Trump himself, too.

Alternatively, these candidates may have failed not because they were Trump-backed, but rather because they were poor candidates. Many were political novices known only as pseudo-celebrities. For example, Oz hosted a popular TV show and took part on the Oprah Winfrey Show, and Walker was a famous collegiate football player. While this popularity helped these candidates with name recognition, voters may have voted against them because they seemed ill-equipped to serve in government.

Whatever the true source of these failures may be, it is undeniable that this stinging series of losses has hurt Trump’s standing in the GOP. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found his approval rating to be a meagerly 31 percent amongst registered voters—the lowest he has had since July 2015. That’s even lower than Biden’s 43 percent. GOP leadership is frustrated with Trump, too. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell blamed Trump for “candidate quality” issues.

Despite this barrage of disapproval, Trump is still bent on returning to the Oval Office. On November 15th, just a week after the midterms, Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2024. The failure of Trump-endorsed candidates will undoubtedly create headwinds for Trump in his re-election endeavor. That being said, he may yet pull out a victory, especially if the cause of these losses was candidate quality and not Trump’s endorsement.

Other prominent Republicans could capitalize on Trump’s perceived weakness. Florida Gov. Ron DeSanits seems particularly well poised to make a run at the Republican presidential nomination. While national Republicans floundered, Florida Republicans won big. Senate incumbent Marco Rubio won by more than 16 points, DeSantis himself won by more than 19 points, and Florida Democrats failed to win a single election for statewide officership. This impressive victory has turned the national spotlight to DeSantis, who as a Republican leader in Florida has benefited politically from this GOP landslide.

While many states like Florida had lopsided elections, some had tight contests. A few states even experienced split-ticket voting, which is when individuals vote for both a Democrat and a Republican. Take Georgia, for example. In this increasingly purple state, voters supported Republican Gov. Brian Kemp by a margin of seven points while also buoying Democrat Sen. Warnock back into office. This electoral phenomenon has been uncommon in the polarized climate of American politics lately, but its resurgence suggests that the American electorate may be less swayed by partisan politics and more inclined to moderate candidates.

In addition to shifting American politics, the 2022 midterms also had an immediate impact: they changed the makeup of Congress. The new Republican majority in the House and the expanded Democratic majority in the Senate will change the legislation and goals of Congress.

With their newfound power, House Republicans say they will open investigations into President Biden and the business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden. There is also discussion of impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his handling of the US-Mexico border, which saw a record 2.76 million undocumented immigrant crossings in 2022. These developments will undoubtedly throw a wrench into the gears of the Biden Administration, and they could potentially weaken Biden’s political standing further (his approval rating is already at a paltry 41.7%). Come the 2024 presidential election, political ammunition like this could prove critical.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats will take advantage of their larger majority in two main ways. First, their 51-49 majority will afford them control of every Senate committee. Senate committees develop bills and mediate on issues that are subsequently brought to the floor. In the current 50-50 Senate, the Democrats and Republicans evenly split seats and resources within committees. But now the Democrats will get more seats and resources for themselves. This will empower them to fast-track legislation and nominations for federal positions, like the federal courts and maybe even the Supreme Court, to the Senate floor.

Second, moderate Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will have less say in Senate proceedings. This will help Democrats avoid situations where a single holdup in their ranks could stall Senate activity for weeks.

In short, the 2022 midterm elections were full of surprises—generally positive for the Democrats, and generally negative for the Republicans. Both parties, though, now find themselves turning to the next big political event: the 2024 elections. These elections could prove even more impactful than the midterms. President Biden will be up for re-election, or if not, some other Democratic candidate will in his stead. Trump, DeSantis, and any other potential Republican challenger will vie for their party’s nomination for the presidency. And less dramatic but perhaps more important, the Democrats will face even tougher odds in the Senate than during the midterms. They enter the next cycle having to defend 23 seats to the GOP’s 10, and many of these seats reside in states increasingly hostile to Democrats, like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.

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